Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 7.938881 9.128995 10.413225 11.899106 13.567903 15.381165 17.497349
2026-01-11 6.138508 7.731972 9.588022 11.897731 14.682041 17.916630 21.944148
2026-01-18 5.133617 6.864445 8.983097 11.745157 15.226203 19.441000 24.900406
2026-01-25 4.434720 6.258181 8.591584 11.761314 15.914366 21.125665 28.107584
2026-02-01 3.933826 5.819247 8.326841 11.855752 16.634716 22.814588 31.330918
2026-02-08 3.468479 5.364354 7.978795 11.780932 17.088936 24.144081 34.118183
2026-02-15 3.073111 4.956475 7.643250 11.671596 17.455117 25.337621 36.742717
2026-02-22 2.789844 4.677764 7.456437 11.740211 18.048458 26.842360 39.832550
2026-03-01 2.613052 4.539024 7.454995 12.064407 19.007647 28.882470 43.738500
2026-03-08 2.335847 4.211467 7.136598 11.882502 19.200582 29.824707 46.109356
2026-03-15 2.020850 3.788107 6.630406 11.367466 18.849043 29.940189 47.265216
2026-03-22 1.912915 3.700881 6.648890 11.669157 19.750918 31.932182 51.246022
2026-03-29 1.789059 3.577112 6.602294 11.869685 20.516886 33.772704 55.111066
2026-04-05 1.625477 3.365646 6.391130 11.783292 20.817942 34.912940 57.960094
2026-04-12 1.474678 3.160701 6.171608 11.661350 21.043634 35.931175 60.643354
2026-04-19 1.359275 3.010384 6.034430 11.667122 21.473325 37.280202 63.885902
2026-04-26 1.268283 2.897862 5.954828 11.764518 22.055553 38.889058 67.591255
2026-05-03 1.162624 2.744367 5.786361 11.688944 22.332222 40.005059 70.537778
2026-05-10 1.063183 2.592751 5.608192 11.580795 22.540637 41.008667 73.328104
2026-05-17 0.993656 2.497121 5.529288 11.648788 23.058258 42.541285 77.034368
2026-05-24 0.957530 2.470776 5.584054 11.970826 24.044043 44.898722 82.190577
2026-05-31 0.871949 2.324024 5.384934 11.790142 24.101758 45.664358 84.686672
2026-06-07 0.763023 2.110407 5.030189 11.278637 23.516083 45.282969 85.204472